注释：
    ① George Kennan,“The Sources of Soviet Conduct”,Foreign Affairs,July 1947.
    ② 值得注意的是，美国历届国家安全顾问中，从未有“中国通”。
    ③ Hans Morgenthau,Politics among Nations,5th edition,New York:Knopf,1978.
    ④ Kenneth N Waltz,Theory of International Politics,New York:McGraw-Hill,1979.
    ⑤ 有关“大三角”的主要著作有：Joseph L.Nogee,“Polarity:An Ambiguous Concept”,Orbis 18,Winter 1975; Henry Kissinger,White House Years,Boston:Little,Brown,1979,esp.837; Ilpyong Kim,ed.,The Strategic Triangle:China,the United States and the Soviet Union,New York:Paragon House,1987; Herbert J.Ellison,ed.,The Sino-Soviet Conflict:A Global Perspective,Seattle:University of Washington Press,1982; Gerald Segal,The Great Power Triangle,London and Basingstoke:Macmillan Press,1982; Gerald Segal,ed.,The China Factor,London:Croom Helm,1982; Douglas T.Stuart and William T.Tow,eds.,China,the Soviet Union,and the West:Strategic and Political Dimensions in the 1980s,Boulder,Colo.:Westview Press,1982; Strobe Talbott,“The Strategic Dimension of the Sino-American Relationship:Enemy of Our Enemy,or True Friend?”in Richard R.Solomon,ed.,The China Factor,Englewood Cliffs,N.J.:Prentice-Hall,1981; Lowell Dittmer,“The Strategic Triangle:An Elementary Game-Theoretical Analysis”,World Politics,Vol.33,No.4,July 198 I; Kenneth G.Lieberthal,Sino-Soviet Conflict in the 1970s:Its Evolution and Implications for the Strategic Triangle,Santa Monica,Calif.:Rand Corporation,1978; Steven I.Levine,“China and the Superpowers”,Political Science Quarterly 90,Winter 1975-76; Min Chen,The Strategic Triangle and Regional Conflicts:Lessons from the Indochina Wars,Boulder,Colo.:Lynne Rienner,1991; Harvey W.Nelsen,Power and Insecurity:Beijing,Moscow,and Washington,1949-1988,Boulder,Colo.:Lynne Rienner,1989.
    ⑥ John Lewis Gaddis,“The Long Peace”,International Security,Spring 1986.
    ⑦ Francis Fukuyama,“The End of History?”,The National Interest,no.16,Summer 1989.
    ⑧ Samuel P.Huntington,“The Clashes of Civilizations?”,Foreign Affairs,summer 1993.
    ⑨ Russell Bova,How the World Works,1st ed.,Longman,2010,pp.24-25.
    ⑩ Walter LaFeber,America,Russia,and the Cold War,1945-2006,10th ed.,McGraw-Hill,2008,pp.344,349.
    (11) 见Richard A.Clarke,Against All Enemies:Inside America's War on Terror,New York:Free Press,2004.
    (12) Walter LaFeber,America,Russia,and the Cold War,1945-2006,10th ed,pp.344,352,355.
    (13) 引自麦迪逊给理查德·布什的信,1821年11月20日，in James Madison,Letters and Other Writings of James Madison,Philadelphia,1867,III,pp.235-236,cited by Walter LaFeber,America,Russia,and the Cold War,1945-2006,10th ed.,p.349.
    (14) Francis Fukuyama的“历史终结论”是这一时期典型的乐观派，“The End of History?”,The National Interest,Summer 1988; 另见Michael Kaufman,“Martin Malia,80,Soviet-Era Skeptic,Dies”,The New York Times,November 24,2004,http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/24/obituaries/24malia.html.
    (15) 在前苏联存在的74年里，各种预测苏联消亡著作不计其数。其中主要的学者以及著作有：George Orwell,James Burnham and the Managerial Revolution (London:Socialist Book Center,1946); Ludwig von Mises,Socialism:An Economic and Sociological Analysis (Yale University Press,1951); Robert Conquest,The National Killers:The Soviet Deportation of Nationalities (The Macmillan Company,1970); and Zbigniew Brzezinski,Dilemmas of Change in Soviet Politics (Columbia University Press,1969),Between Two Ages:America's Role in the Technetronic Era (Greenwood Press,1970),The Grand Failure:The Birth and Decay of Communism in the Twentieth Century (Charles Scribner's Sons,1989).然而上述预测均未引起Z文所造成的轰动效应。